Rising Green Coffee Prices: What It Means for Your Daily Brew

If you’ve noticed your daily coffee getting more expensive, you’re not alone. The global price of green coffee has been on the rise, and it’s not just a temporary blip. This shift is driven by a combination of supply and demand imbalances, climate-related setbacks in key growing regions, speculative market behaviors, and increased preemptive buying to hedge against future price hikes. These factors have left farmers, consumers, cafes, and wholesalers caught in the middle of an increasingly volatile coffee market.

What’s Driving the Price Increase?

1. Supply Challenges: Bad Crops in Brazil and Beyond

Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, has faced a series of tough harvests due to unpredictable weather. A mix of drought, unexpected frosts, and other climate-related disruptions has significantly reduced coffee yields. Other major coffee-producing regions, including Colombia and Vietnam, have also faced supply constraints due to climate variability, disease, and shifting economic conditions. This has tightened global supply, pushing prices up.

2. Increasing Demand for Specialty Coffee

Consumer preferences have shifted towards higher-quality, ethically sourced coffee, increasing demand for premium beans. While this trend benefits some farmers, it also puts additional strain on supply chains already struggling to keep up with demand. With more people willing to pay for specialty-grade coffee, market dynamics are changing rapidly.

3. Speculation and Market Manipulation

Coffee is a commodity, meaning its price is influenced not just by farmers and buyers but also by speculative traders and financial markets. Hedge funds and commodity traders play a role in driving up prices, sometimes independently of actual supply and demand conditions.

4. Preemptive Buying and Hoarding

A particularly interesting trend has emerged: businesses and major buyers are stockpiling green coffee beans in anticipation of further price hikes. This preemptive purchasing strategy creates an artificial tightening of supply, exacerbating price increases even further. This type of hoarding behavior has historically been observed in other commodity markets during periods of expected scarcity.

Who Feels the Impact?

1. Daily Coffee Drinkers

If you buy your coffee from a local cafe, you might have already seen price hikes. Small specialty cafes, in particular, operate on thin margins and have to pass on rising bean costs to customers. Supermarket coffee prices will also reflect these changes, though the impact may be more gradual.

2. Cafes and Roasters

Specialty coffee shops that prioritise high-quality, ethically sourced beans are the most vulnerable. Unlike large chains that can hedge against price fluctuations, independent cafes and smaller roasters may struggle to maintain margins while keeping prices reasonable for customers. Some may shift to different origins or blends to manage costs, potentially altering the flavor profiles of their offerings.

3. Wholesalers and Bulk Buyers

Large-scale buyers, including restaurant chains and corporate coffee suppliers, will likely see increased costs. Some may turn to cheaper alternatives, potentially leading to lower-quality coffee in non-specialty environments.

4. Farmers: The Ones Who Should Benefit but Often Don’t

You’d think higher prices would mean more money for coffee farmers, but the reality is more complex. Many farmers sell their crops through long-term contracts or cooperatives, meaning they don’t always benefit from sudden price surges. Additionally, production costs—fertilizers, labor, and transportation—have also risen, eating into their potential gains.

5. The ‘Coffee for Coffee’s Sake’ Producers

There’s a segment of the industry that treats coffee purely as a commodity, with little regard for consumer experience or farmer welfare. These large-scale producers often prioritise yield and cost-cutting over quality, sustainability, or fair wages. When prices rise, their primary response is efficiency-driven—pushing for cheaper production methods, mechanisation, or lower-paid labor rather than improving conditions for workers or investing in quality.

An Opportunity for a More Mindful Coffee Ritual

While price increases might be frustrating, they also present an opportunity to rethink how we engage with our daily coffee. Instead of treating it as just another routine habit, this might be the perfect time to slow down and create a ritual out of each cup.

• Be more thoughtful about those who brought you your coffee: Consider the farmers, the roasters, the baristas—all the hands that made your coffee possible. Their work is reflected in every sip.
• Choose quality over quantity: Instead of focusing on getting the cheapest cup, pay attention to the flavor, the texture, and how it makes you feel. Seek out specialty coffee that respects both the farmer and the process.
• Make each cup an experience: Whether it’s brewing a pour-over with precision, steaming milk just right, or savoring an espresso shot without distractions, turn your coffee routine into a moment of appreciation and mindfulness.

Final Thoughts

The coffee industry is undergoing a fundamental shift, and while rising green coffee prices present challenges, they also provide an opportunity to rethink how we value this daily ritual. Instead of seeking the cheapest option, this moment calls for a deeper appreciation of where coffee comes from and the people who make it possible. If prices are going up, let’s make sure we’re paying for coffee that’s worth it—both in quality and in ethical sourcing.

By embracing a more mindful approach to coffee consumption, we can transform our daily brew into an experience that honors the craft, the farmers, and the journey behind every cup.